Re-watch IBP webinar: Modelling Uncertainty

Q&A Transcript and Glossary

Last Wednesday Dr. Katharina Hauck’s webinar session, chaired by Imperial Business School’s James Barlow, kicked off our new “Decision Making Under Uncertainty” webinar series with a presentation entitled “Modelling Uncertainty”.

Katharina presented one possible solution to the problem of managing the unknown with a layperson’s introduction to Extreme Bounds Analysis. Extreme Bounds Analysis is a method of model averaging helpful in sifting through a range of factors to uncover the most influential ones, based on past data.

She used as an example a study that advised policy makers at the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the best investments in population health in low-income countries. Through this study Katharina showed how automated tools, which make it feasible to replace a single model with a million variants, can help manage uncertainty and risk, in near real time, and yet still remain accessible to decision-makers from a wide range of backgrounds.

The presentation was followed by a Q&A.

You can find an abridged video of the webinar (presentation only) here and you can find a PDF version of the presentation here.

Attached is a glossary of key terms and the session’s Q&A transcript to keep you well informed.

The next IBP webinar will take place in December and an Eventbrite will be circulated for registration closer to the time. If, however, there is a particular topic you would like to hear more on or academics you would like to hear from please don’t hesitate to get in touch by replying to this e-mail or e-mailing

This event was produced in collaboration with Imperial Tech Foresight.