Last Wednesday, Dr. Katharina Hauck, Senior Lecturer in Health Economics, kicked off our new “Decision Making Under Uncertainty” webinar series with a presentation entitled “Modelling Uncertainty”.

During the session, Katharina presented one possible solution to navigating the unknown with a layperson’s introduction to Extreme Bounds Analysis. Extreme Bounds Analysis is a method of model averaging helpful in sifting through a range of factors to uncover the most influential ones, based on past data.

Katharina used as an example, a study that advised policy makers at the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the best investments in population health in low-income countries.

You can find an abridged version of the talk (presentation only) here. You can also find a PDF version of the presentation here.

Attached to this post is also a transcript of the Q&A session and a glossary of helpful terms to allow you to get the most out of the session.

The next IBP webinar will take place in December. There will be an Eventbrite circulated with more details closer to the time however, in the meantime, if there is a particular topic you would like to hear more on or academics you would like to hear more from please don’t hesitate to get in touch with us at